AJ Burnett Is Going To Be Really Really Rich No Matter What I Say.

Today I was watching Daily News Live on SNY, which is one of those sports roundtable shows where various personalities crowd around a table and argue about sports like it’s the MOST IMPORTANT THING EVER, except now with a NEW YORK FLAVOR!!!

I don’t know how many people actually watch Daily News Live but I usually find it pretty entertaining. It’s hosted by Chris Cotter, who I’ve generally liked since his work with the Mets TV crew in 2006. Especially entertaining, however, is the possibility that on any given day WFAN personality Joe Beningo is liable to go on a long unstable rant about the “Richard Todd game” or the “Charles Smith game” or some other catastrophic sports event in his life that might give him a stroke on the air. I always feel like there a 5-to-10 percent chance I may become Joe Beningo 30 years from now, screaming at anyone within earshot about how Yadier Molina can burn in hell and how the 2008 New York Giants were totally going to repeat until Plaxico Burress shot himself in the leg (see my reverse jinx? SEE IT?), and that possibility disturbs me. Plus, just today I heard a Mel Rojas reference on the program, and if there’s anything I like, it’s reliving horrible and traumatic childhood memories as much as possible.

Well, anyway, today the show had Daily News baseball writer Adam Rubin on as part of their coverage of the MLB Winter Meetings that concluded with the Rule V draft this morning. The discussion turned to the pursuit of starting pitcher AJ Burnett and the Yankees efforts to get him, most notably rumors of their latest insane offer to the former Blue Jay. In rationalizing it from the Yankees’ perspective, Rubin said something to this effect, something that left me in a bit of a tizzy:

“The Yankees look at Burnett as a number one pitcher in the American League.”

I guess – I guess the Yankees have to spin it that way – but what the hell are they talking about?

AJ Burnett does not crack the top 20 in Baseball Reference’s active ERA leaders, even excluding pitchers like Cole Hamels and Scott Kazmir that don’t have enough innings to qualify. Comically, he is just ahead of Barry Zito on the list, who’s obscene contract is the disaster by which other pitching contract disasters will be measured for years to come. He has a career ERA+ of 111, or 11 percent above league average (funny comparison: Juan Guzman’s career ERA+ was 112). In 2008, the first season in which he won more than 12 games, his ERA+ was 105, or just slightly above league average. 10 of his 18 wins came in a first half that saw him put up an impressive 4.96 (!!!) ERA.

Unfortunately, AJ Burnett’s ERA might be the strongest evidence for his case to be a “number one pitcher”. He will be 32 next season and will have pitched over 200 innings in a season just three times, started 30 games twice, and have a career record going into 2009 of 87-76 in in parts of ten seasons. Sure, he might be a “number one pitcher” by the logic that if he is one the 30 best starting pitchers in the league (which he might be), he would be a number one on some team, somewhere, but that’s the kind of stupid logic that leads to people giving pitchers like Gil Meche $55 million.

By almost any measure, sabermetric or (flawed) traditional, AJ Burnett is not a number one pitcher. I’ll say it again, and in bold this time: AJ Burnett is not a number one pitcher in the American League or the National League. He is an above average pitcher who has had some rather significant injury issues and happened to have a nice “looking” season (lots of wins) in a year when the Yankees decided they had entirely too much money sitting around and needed to throw it at something.

Of course, they aren’t the only ones involved in the lunacy – the Atlanta fucking Braves (of all teams) are trying to compete with the Yankees in the assinine Burnett bidding war. Honestly, the one downside of Burnett signing with the Yanks is that Atlanta, a team far less able to buy away their mistakes, would not be handicapped with his salary. Having the Braves dedicate a significant portion of their payroll to an “ace” that doesn’t belong on the same planet as Johan Santana would only benefit the Mets in the long term.

But hey, if the same team that threw $40 million down the drain for Carl Pavano and $46 million on this guy thinks AJ Burnett is worth $17 million dollars a season, and are convinced they can’t get a 110 ERA+ out of “untouchables” like Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy in the very near future, then let them go right ahead. They just shouldn’t mention it when they go ask the city for another $370 million in bonds for their new stadium.